Friday, January 15, 2016

Sankranthi - The account travels north - Day Trading: Jan 15, Intraday

Today is Sankranthi, the day (incorrectly?) believed to be the day the Sun starts its northbound journey. My account started the northward journey earlier this week. Here's how my trading performance chart for 2016 looks:

Profit per trade and Cumulative Profits

I stuck to trading the same Trading System for the whole week (a mini-record for me) - Discretionary Trading entries based on Range Contraction in the M15 Candlestick Chart, and Mechanical Stop Loss Placement with very slow trailing. That's because I haven't hit a big drawdown with this trading system yet.

Intra-Trade Drawdown and % Booked


On an average, in a winning trade, I had a Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) of +69.90 points, and I booked only +42.23 of those points. That is a profit booking of 60% of MFE. For large moves, that's a lot of potential profits given up. The average Trade Drawdown (TDD) was -34.14 points. That is 49% of the average MFE, and 81% of of the average profit booked. A very inefficient trading system. This has been the characteristic of the system this week. During my visual backtests, it was not so. In the backtests, I would enter a trade and exit it and the end of day on most days, leaving very little profit unbooked...

But the weeks other Trading Stats - a Win Rate of 82% (9 out of 11), and a Payoff Ratio of 3.28 are quite impressive.

Date Position Result MFE TDD
01/11/16 Long 23.50 39.35 -15.85
01/11/16 Long 46.30 74.20 -28.80
01/12/16 Short 21.00 41.35 -20.35
01/12/16 Short 5.30 33.70 -40.70
01/13/16 Long -9.80 1.40 -11.20
01/13/16 Short 75.35 125.90 -50.55
01/13/16 Short 19.95 50.00 -30.05
01/14/16 Short -15.95 15.95 -31.90
01/14/16 Long 95.00 127.10 -32.10
01/14/16 Short 20.00 40.00 -41.95
01/15/16 Short 73.70 97.50 -46.90
354.35 646.45 -350.35
32.21 58.77 -31.85

Today's trades


Today's trade was a long grind - the longest of my trades since I started this blog. I entered the trade on the second M15 bar with a 20 point Stop Loss. Ideally, I should have entered on the third M15 bar with a tighter Stop Loss - in which case I would have made a loss. The market ranged and the trade dragged on for a long time - I had to wait for exactly 255 minutes before I could move my Initial Stop Loss according to the Mechanical Stop Loss trailing rules. In the interim, I was the proverbial 'Bakre ki Amma', expecting my trade to be slaughtered any moment. The trade ended well... the price went South, and the profits went North.

Nifty M3 Candlestick Chart

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