Thursday, December 10, 2020

2020-12-10 - 5 losses

 5 losses today. This method is still being backtested. The discretionary element of scrip selection and entries make it difficult to backtest the system with any confidence.

Live tweets of today's trades





Wednesday, December 9, 2020

2020-12-09 - Trying the Range Compression Trading System once again

 Today, I tried my hand again at the Range Compression Trading System that I used to trade some years ago. This time there some changes, though the concepts are very much the same. 

I had these mottos for the Range Compression Trading System:


Those remain. Today, I was trading the system on the M3 charts. This version of the Range Compression Trading System is mechanical. The only discretionary element that I am allowing is in scrip selection and entry point selection. The entry criteria is slightly different from the earlier versions of these trading system. Also, trailing begins much later than in the earlier version.

Today, I got an early entry in NIFTY and that held throughout the day. It did not move enough to initiate trailing.


Usually I do not post mechanical trades, but...

My live tweets of today's trade.




Monday, December 7, 2020

2020-12-07 - Regression

 Visually, today's trades look worse than those of Friday. Tonight, I will have to decide whether to continue with discretionary trading.... Almost decided. My confidence is slow, and it looks like I don't have the skill.

Live tweets of today's trades






Friday, December 4, 2020

2020-12-04 - At the end of my tether

 Call it wrapped thinking, but I am satisfied about two things:

  1. I thought my entry setups were good, expect for the frustration trade in RELIANCE.
  2. I kept my initial Stop Losses small.

Would patience have given me better entry with such small Stop Loss? I don't think so. With a larger stop loss? Perhaps.

Hardly any of my entries worked. I was not even able to trail my SL. So, objectively, weren't the entries bad? But pictorially they look good to me.

The first trade in BANKNIFTY moved, but I trailed the Stop Loss just a bit too quickly. In the last trade in ICICIBANK, I trailed slower. Quick trailing would have got me out earlier, maybe at breakeven. Everyday, I am flipping between having tight SLs and loose SLs.At the end of the day, my thinking was that small initial Stop Losses are fine, because in any case I have a tendency to get into losing trades. What's the point of losing bigger then. I could trail slower though, because the important thing is to catch the big move. Getiing out quick from a trade - whether in profit or loss - gets me faster into the next losing trade. So moving the initial Stop Losses slower might work.

I have almost given up on this round of discretionary trading. It's been another frustrating round. The objective of trying this out - to minimize (or eliminate) losing days - seems remote.Not sure if I will continue to trade discretionary on Monday. Last year, my discretionary trading trial had lasted whole of 5 days.

My live trading tweets today until I stopped tweeting.






Thursday, December 3, 2020

2020-12-03 Tilting at windmills

Today's trading plan was to have a tight initial stop, and then mechanically trail slower than the previous days. It was wrong, since in the end it was like trading a untested mechanical trading system. I knew that right at the beginning - it goes against my rationale for trying out discretionary trading. Even a untested semi-mechanical system does give a sense of comfort - the possibility to blaming the "system"instead of taking full responsibility for the actions.

But I was psychologically damaged from yesterday's losses, and did not want to do the right thing. In the end, the results forced me to drop the plan, and concentrate on discretion. So the last 3 trades - one in HDFCLIFE and two in MARUTI were completely discretionary.


In MARUTI, I was tilting at the windmills - shorting an uptrend. On the previous days, a failed short would have made me go long, but today the plan was to avoid SAR. Even in the discretionary trades towards the end, I wanted to avoid SARs. Results of a couple of days in the last two weeks have been badly affected by SAR trades - including yesterday.

Tomorrow, let be play my discretion to the hilt. SAR will be decided by discretion. Entry will be discretionary. Trailing will be discretionary.

Live tweets of today's trades before I stopped tweeting.






Wednesday, December 2, 2020

2020-12-02 - There goes my plan

 I had this plan to not have a single losing day in December. That is the whole point of these discretionary trades - to minimize the number of losing days. My mechanical trading systems give me between 30-50% winning days - about 80-90% winning months - but still hurt when there are a couple of consecutive losing months. I am hoping to not have losing days with discretionary trading. High hopes since in my years of day trading, I have never had a month without a losing day.

Today got whipped in SAR trades in BHARTIARTL and BANKNIFTY. That was the improvised plan for today. All would have been forgiven had I been able to catch the V reversal after 2PM. But by then I had lost the confidence needed to take SAR trades.

Just posting my charts here with no commentary. My live tweets for the day are here. My whole approach has to be reviewed. Anyways the tweets are available in case I want to analyze the trades in detail later.






Tuesday, December 1, 2020

2020-12-01 - OK day

 The day open had good volumes in most scrips, but I was undecided on the direction. The first half was boring. Nothing much happened. Initially, I got into a NIFTY long, and then a BANKNIFTY short. I would have avoided both these trades in favor of some other, if I had looked at other charts earlier. But these trades turned out better than the trades that I would have preferred. Serendipity?

It was a trending day for NIFTY and many other scrips, but took shorts in RELIANCE and NIFTY. Days can turn, I just looked at the setup. A long in INFY did not work because of tight SL. Then a bad trade in NIFTY, the kind that gave me losses in the first half on Friday. Towards the end of day, an ICICIBANK short proved good.

Live tweets of today's trades